As an economist, I am passionate about conducting research that has real-world implications and can inform policy decisions. My research focuses on industrial organization, applied econometrics, and causal inference, with a particular interest in the energy sector.
Working papers:
Consumer welfare and price controls in gasoline markets
Colina, A. R. (2023, April)
I estimate the consumer welfare impact of removing a price control policy on retail gasoline in Mexico. I use the features of a highly regulated industry and a two-tiered pricing regime in two cities to identify the demand for gasoline for heterogeneous consumers and spatially differentiated goods.
I estimate households’ price sensitivity and their implicit valuation for convenience. I find that for every peso gained in welfare from increased product availability, consumers lose two pesos due to increased prices. The aggregate impact in these cities is a 1.4 billion M XN/year loss, roughly 7% of yearly revenue. High-income households bear the brunt of the price increases since they overwhelmingly consume most gasoline. However, as a proportion of income, lower-income households are affected the most. City-year price elasticity is between -0.42 and -0.64; this is 13% to 72% higher than previous estimates for the U.S.
ACCIDENTS MAY HAPPEN: ESTIMATING THE PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND FOR GASOLINE IN CALIFORNIA
Colina, A. R. (2023, May)
California’s gasoline price differential to the rest of the U.S. increased during the 2015 Torrance refinery accident. The differential remained high compared to historical standards after the accident was resolved. The reason for the persistence remains unclear. I test if Californians have become less price elastic as a plausible explanation. To do so, I propose a new set of instruments to estimate the price elasticity of demand. They do not need strong assumptions about consumers’ anticipatory behavior. I use unexpected refinery outages to instrument for price changes. I estimate California’s one-month price elasticity of demand to be -1.19 and three-month elasticity to be -0.59. I do not find a significant difference in consumer price sensitivity after the accident.
Work in progress:
Location, price competition, and the choice to differentiate.
Colina, A. R. and R. Sexton
We estimate the effect of increased competition on the choice of gas stations to differentiate from their main competitors
Taxes and prices. Separating consumer behavior from short and long-term price shocks.
Colina, A. R. and B. Gafarov
Industry consolidation and (unexpected) output curtailment in California’s gasoline markets.
Colina, A. R
Environmental impacts and price liberalization in Mexico’s gasoline market.
Colina, A. R