As an economist, I am passionate about conducting research that has real-world implications and can inform policy decisions. My research focuses on industrial organization, applied econometrics, and causal inference, with a particular interest in the energy sector.
Published papers:
CALIFORNIA GASOLINE DEMAND ELASTICITY ESTIMATED USING REFINERY OUTAGES
Colina, A. R. (2025, JUN)
This paper provides new estimates for gasoline price elasticity in California. Leveraging unique aspects of the California gasoline market and a newly proposed set of strong, plausibly exogenous instruments, we refine elasticity estimates. First, we utilize California’s distinctive gasoline market, which is partly isolated from the rest of the U.S. due to environmental regulations. By accounting for persistent demand shocks, we estimate a lower bound for demand elasticity of -0.23. Next, using a new set of instruments to address simultaneity, we incorporate detailed data on refinery outages to capture short-run supply shocks. Our long-run demand elasticity estimate is -0.57. JEL codes: C22, C36, C51, D12, Q41. Keywords: Capacity outages, gasoline demand price elasticity, instrumental variable estimation, California gasoline market.
Cost Effectiveness of Fortified Bouillon in Addressing Burkinabe Children’s Vitamin A Inadequacy: An Economic Optimization Model
Colina, A. R., Vosti, S., Jarvis, M., Engle-Stone, R., Michuda, A., Ortiz-Becerra, K., Adams, K., et al. (2025, Mar)
This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various vitamin A intervention strategies aimed at reducing dietary inadequacy among children aged 6–59 months in Burkina Faso. Utilizing a 10-year subnational economic optimization model, the research incorporates secondary dietary intake and program cost data to assess interventions including existing or improved edible oil fortification, hypothetical vitamin A-fortified bouillon programs, and subnational vitamin A supplementation (VAS) initiatives. Findings consistently identify improved edible oil and bouillon fortification as foundational national programs, with the potential addition of more expensive subnational VAS programs contingent on policy goals and funding availability. Despite implementing the most impactful modeled programs, vitamin A inadequacy among children is projected to remain a significant public health concern, indicating the necessity for supplementary measures. JEL codes: I18, O12, Q18 Keywords: Vitamin A deficiency, cost-effectiveness, food fortification, Burkina Faso, child nutrition, economic modeling.
Working papers:
When the Bank Says Yes: Credit Approvals and Employment in Mexican Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises
Colina, A. R., & Negrín, J. L. (2025, May)
This study analyzes the impact of credit approvals on employment within Mexican micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) by linking 2018–2020 loan application data—including credit scores—from Mexico’s five largest banks with monthly payroll records. The staggered timing of loan approvals enables estimation of dynamic treatment effects, revealing that approved firms experience a 7% increase in labor force 12 months post-approval. However, using a regression discontinuity design at the banks’ credit score cutoffs, the study finds no significant employment effect for marginally approved firms. These findings underscore the importance of creditworthiness as an indicator of a firm’s capacity to effectively utilize liquidity for productive purposes.
JEL codes: C23, C26, D22, G21, J23, O16
Keywords: Credit, firm behavior, employment dynamics, MSMEs, staggered difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity design.
Employment Horizons and Job Productivity: A Randomized Shock to Mexican Judges’ Tenure
Colina, A. R., & Juarez Aguilar, I. A. (2025, May)
This study leverages a randomized lottery from Mexico’s 2024 judicial reform to causally assess how shortening judges’ employment horizons—from 32 to 8 months—affects productivity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, the authors find that reduced tenure leads to a 17 percentage point drop in monthly judicial productivity, equating to a 19% decline from baseline levels. The estimated elasticity of productivity with respect to tenure is approximately 0.25, suggesting a 2.5% productivity increase for every 10% extension in tenure duration. These findings highlight the critical role of employment expectations in high-skilled public sector roles and offer policy insights for institutional reforms.
JEL codes: J24, J41, J45, K13, D82
Keywords: Labor productivity, employment horizon, tenure, difference-in-differences, courts, judicial reform, Mexico.
Mexico’s Gasoline Markets: A Study of the Consumer Welfare Impacts of Price Liberalization and Permit Curtailment∗
Colina, A. R. (2024, Nov)
This paper assesses the impact on consumer welfare following the liberalization of gasoline prices in Mexico, which came after more than 80 years of government-imposed price controls and limited gas station openings. By leveraging a natural experiment that introduced a two-tiered pricing structure in two cities, I estimate the varying demand for gasoline using a random coefficients model, emphasizing household sensitivity to prices and access to the product. Results indicate that for each peso gained from increased access, households incur a two-peso loss due to price hikes. The total welfare loss in these cities amounts to 1.4 billion pesos annually, or roughly 7% of gasoline sales. While high-income households experience the most significant absolute price impact, lower-income households face a larger relative burden on their income. The estimated price elasticity falls between -0.42 and -0.64, comparable to U.S. levels and notably higher than previous estimates for Mexico.
JEL codes: C31, C36, C51, D12, L10, L11, L81, D60, D90, H25, H31, Q41, Q48.
Keywords: Gasoline demand, price elasticity, BLP, Mexico, price liberalization, household behavior.
Work in progress:
LOCATION, PRICE COMPETITION, AND THE CHOICE TO DIFFERENTIATE.
Colina, A. R. and R. Sexton
We estimate the effect of increased competition on the choice of gas stations to differentiate from their main competitors.
TAXES AND PRICES. SEPARATING CONSUMER BEHAVIOR FROM SHORT AND LONG-TERM PRICE SHOCKS.
Colina, A. R. and B. Gafarov
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND PRICE LIBERALIZATION IN MEXICO’S GASOLINE MARKET.
Colina, A. R
INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION AND (UNEXPECTED) OUTPUT CURTAILMENT IN CALIFORNIA’S GASOLINE MARKETS.
Colina, A. R