As an economist, I am passionate about conducting research that has real-world implications and can inform policy decisions. My research focuses on industrial organization, applied econometrics, and causal inference, with a particular interest in the energy sector.
Working papers:
Mexico’s Gasoline Markets: A Study of the Consumer Welfare Impacts of Price Liberalization and Permit Curtailment∗
Colina, A. R. (2024, Nov)
This paper assesses the impact on consumer welfare following the liberalization of gasoline prices in Mexico, which came after more than 80 years of government-imposed price controls and limited gas station openings. By leveraging a natural experiment that introduced a two-tiered pricing structure in two cities, I estimate the varying demand for gasoline using a random coefficients model, emphasizing household sensitivity to prices and access to the product. Results indicate that for each peso gained from increased access, households incur a two-peso loss due to price hikes. The total welfare loss in these cities amounts to 1.4 billion pesos annually, or roughly 7% of gasoline sales. While high-income households experience the most significant absolute price impact, lower-income households face a larger relative burden on their income. The estimated price elasticity falls between -0.42 and -0.64, comparable to U.S. levels and notably higher than previous estimates for Mexico.
JEL codes: C31, C36, C51, D12, L10, L11, L81, D60, D90, H25, H31, Q41, Q48.
Keywords: Gasoline demand, price elasticity, BLP, Mexico, price liberalization, household behavior.
CALIFORNIA GASOLINE DEMAND ELASTICITY ESTIMATED USING REFINERY OUTAGES
Colina, A. R. (2024, Nov)
This paper provides new estimates for gasoline price elasticity in California. Leveraging unique aspects of the California gasoline market and a newly proposed set of strong, plausibly exogenous instruments, we refine elasticity estimates. First, we utilize California’s distinctive gasoline market, which is partly isolated from the rest of the U.S. due to environmental regulations. By accounting for persistent demand shocks, we estimate a lower bound for demand elasticity of -0.23. Next, using a new set of instruments to address simultaneity, we incorporate detailed data on refinery outages to capture short-run supply shocks. Our long-run demand elasticity estimate is -0.57.
JEL codes: C22, C36, C51, D12, Q41.
Keywords: Capacity outages, gasoline demand price elasticity, instrumental variable estimation, California gasoline market.
Work in progress:
THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF ACCESS TO CREDIT ON LABOR OUTCOMES IN MICRO, SMALL, AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES IN MEXICO.
Colina, A. R
We estimate the dynamic effects of access to credit by MSMEs on labor outcomes like employment and wages at the firm level. We use a new database that contains all credit applications done by MSMEs to five of the seven largest banks in Mexico by assets. We estimate that access to credit has an effect of increasing the number of employees by 8% a year after the credit is granted and no significant effect on the level of wages paid.
COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF FORTIFIED BOUILLON IN ADDRESSING BURKINABE CHILDREN’S VITAMIN A INADEQUACY: AN ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION APPROACH.
Colina, A. R
Vitamin A dietary inadequacy remains a serious public health problem among young children 6-59 months of age in Burkina Faso. Planners face several interrelated challenges: a) selecting concrete policy objectives regarding vitamin A inadequacy reductions, b) identifying cost-effective vitamin A intervention programs that can achieve those objectives, and c) being reasonably sure that proposed intervention programs are robust to uncertainty in program benefits and costs. A 10-year, subnational economic optimization model making use of secondary dietary intake data and program cost data was developed and implemented to address these issues and included the following vitamin A program options: existing or improved edible oil fortification, a hypothetical VA-fortified bouillon program, and a set of subnational vitamin A supplementation (VAS) programs. The model consistently identified the improved edible oils and bouillon fortification programs as the core national programs upon which the more expensive subnational VAS programs could be layered, depending on policy objectives and available funding. These results were robust to uncertainty in program nutritional benefits and costs. However, even if the most impactful set of modeled programs were implemented, vitamin A inadequacy among children would remain a serious public health problem, hence additional efforts to address it would be needed.
LOCATION, PRICE COMPETITION, AND THE CHOICE TO DIFFERENTIATE.
Colina, A. R. and R. Sexton
We estimate the effect of increased competition on the choice of gas stations to differentiate from their main competitors.
TAXES AND PRICES. SEPARATING CONSUMER BEHAVIOR FROM SHORT AND LONG-TERM PRICE SHOCKS.
Colina, A. R. and B. Gafarov
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND PRICE LIBERALIZATION IN MEXICO’S GASOLINE MARKET.
Colina, A. R
INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION AND (UNEXPECTED) OUTPUT CURTAILMENT IN CALIFORNIA’S GASOLINE MARKETS.
Colina, A. R